MyDD :: Hypo for a sunny day.

Some Clinton supporters still see her getting the nomination. They're willing to go to war at the convention for it to happen.

Hypothetically, if Clinton were able to secure the nomination in Denver, what chance do you give her of winning in the GE and, if you think she would win, how would she do it?

Please be specific.

Please include the following analysis.

What voting groups, if any, do you think she would lose?

Or, what percentage of certain voting groups, if any, do you think she would lose?

If you think she would lose some voters where would she make up those deficits?

If you think she would lose some voters what states do you think she'd have the most trouble winning because of it?

Permalink :: 27 Comments :: Post a Comment

This is part of the reason that I, (2.00 / 1)

even as a Clinton supporter, don't believe she should win the nomination if she's behind (which she obviously is). I think the African American community might sit the election out (though I don't think they'd cast revenge votes for McCain), and we can't win without them. If she has to lose, I'd rather see Hillary lose the nomination than the general election. Much less painful that way.

Even John McCain lusts after teh engels.

by sricki on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:24:07 PM EST

Re: Hypo for a sunny day. (none / 0)

Just one more reason this cannot happen. Obama is going to be acting and campaigning as if he is the nominee from now until the convention. There is no way to flip it to Clinton at the convention without massive damage to the party and candidate.

by neonplaque on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:32:08 PM EST

Electoral map/policy wonk (2.00 / 1)

IMO, Clinton would do much better than Obama during the GE. I would think that she would get anywhere between 50% to 70% of the vote. Why? Two reasons...Unlike Obama, Clinton is a policy wonk, she knows her stuff. Also Clinton is doing well with the electoral map. I don't trust the new map Obama has created. It hasn't been tested. Also, Clinton does extremely well at debating...Obama, not so much.

by soyousay on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:37:54 PM EST

Re: Electoral map/policy wonk (2.00 / 1)

In a vacuum perhaps but I'm talking about after a floor fight.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:43:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electoral map/policy wonk (2.00 / 1)

A floor fight would effect both candidates, not just Clinton. Regardless, IMO, Clinton would do much better than Obama in the GE. Initially, Obama was getting some support from conservatives but now he is seen as someone far to the left. Probably the effect of his foreign policy views, his "clinging to guns and religion" statement, and Rev. Wright. Clinton is for the most part seen as a centrist. America is a moderate country, not left leaning.

by soyousay on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:51:34 PM EST
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Re: Electoral map/policy wonk (none / 0)

That's really not addressing the issue. Obama winning a floor fight won't be reasonably seen as illegitimate.

More electable isn't an argument that'll sway anyone. He'd have to be unelectable. But he's not.

Am I to take from your comments though that you don't think Clinton would lose any support?

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:36:49 PM EST
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I think that's a matter of opinion... (none / 0)

Since it really does come down to the superdelegate's decision.

by soyousay on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:39:44 PM EST
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Re: I think that's a matter of opinion... (none / 0)

Perhaps but he did win the delegate race...

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon May 26, 2008 at 03:02:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think that's a matter of opinion... (none / 0)

Clinton is winning key states that are needed come Nov. To ignore this is foolish. Obama's "new map" is untested and won't cut it.

by soyousay on Mon May 26, 2008 at 03:10:27 PM EST
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Re: I think that's a matter of opinion... (none / 0)

How's she gonna win without wisconsin, michigan, minnesota, oregon and washington?

See how stupid this game is?

by CaptainMorgan on Mon May 26, 2008 at 03:16:01 PM EST
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Re: I think that's a matter of opinion... (none / 0)

That doesn't appear to be a convincing argument. Kerry was up @ 320 right now in 2004.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon May 26, 2008 at 03:41:37 PM EST
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While I agree wholeheartedly that US is moderate (none / 0)

Obama likely enters the convention as the presumptive nominee. If the Clinton campaign engaged in hardball tactics to secure the nomination and succeeded, Obama would be the defeated one with the advantage of moral superiority while Clinton would be a popularly despised victor. I don't think her considerable abilities and skills on the GE campaign trail would be enough to erase those bad feelings.

by lombard on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:52:07 PM EST
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matter of opinion. (none / 0)

That's the opinion of an Obama supporter (you.) As a Clinton supporter, I see it as a well deserved nomination. I'm sure they'll be a continued divide between Clinton and Obama supporters no matter what happens.

by soyousay on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:59:13 PM EST
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Obama supporter? (none / 0)

I am unequivocally a Clinton supporter but I like to think of myself as a realist and, as much as I like her and feel she has been unfairly treated, my support for her does have some limit.

by lombard on Mon May 26, 2008 at 03:06:15 PM EST
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Much better! (none / 0)

by lombard on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:34:44 PM EST
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seeking war on memorial day? (none / 0)

most people see elections as a chance to vote, for the one you prefer. I'm of the opinion that Hillary staying to the convention is necessary for Obama, if he's to be our nom. But, if he continues to demonize her, nothing will help. She's stopped fighting with him, and some time back. She's making a positive case for herself and not a case against his character. This talk of war isn't helpful to the party, we need to come together to back our eventual nom and since it looks like him, at least so far, he can do a lot now to unite the party and demonizing Hillary isn't anything that will help him. Nor, might I add, is demonizing some of her supporters going to help, that stuff just drives wedges in further and it's depressing. It's stupid, and to paraphrase Barack, I'm not against politicking, I'm against stupid politicking.

Whoever is our nom and whoever is our prez, I'll be on his or her case to do what's right, to appeal to what's best and not what's worse, and to unite with the rest of the party, not hold grudges and use the nom for payback. Over 70 percent of Americans want to see a unity ticket, and I'm one of them. Half of the voters have gone for her.

I think it's time to stop making threats and get to work. Tell us why you think Obama will be a great president and why his campaign inspires you. My only criticism of him is the tone of his campaign, I don't care about his wife or his pastor or his lefty associates, those things make him more attractive to me, I'm an old lefty myself. What makes him very unattractive is the way he seems to believe that Hillary is a monster and must be crushed and forced to submit. I think that bodes ill for his character.

by anna shane on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:52:34 PM EST

Re: seeking war on memorial day? (none / 0)

What makes him very unattractive is the way he seems to believe that Hillary is a monster and must be crushed and forced to submit.

Although I don't buy your argument that this is Obama's MO, and I can smell the gendered language here a mile away, I would like to ask you this: what about Hillary's campaign is it that makes you think she will get out of the race under any circumstances other than being "crushed and forced to submit"?

by Bargeron on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:18:34 PM EST
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Re: seeking war on memorial day? (none / 0)

because she's said exactly that, and repeatedly, and starting before Texas. She says she's committed to unifying the party behind the winner and that when it's decided, either right after the last votes are tallied or at the convention, she'll campaign for the winner. She's also admitted that she's a long shot and that she's in it to win but has no illusions. If you say she's lying, that's the way to say she needs to be crushed and banished. He seems to credit her with special powers that must be destroyed. To my mind he's trying to destroy her.

by anna shane on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:28:32 PM EST
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Re: seeking war on memorial day? (none / 0)

I suppose it's an issue of perspective. I see him running a vigorous campaign on all fronts. That means campaigning in the remaining states, transitioning into the fight against John McBush, and using whatever institutional pressures he has (if he has any, they are of recent vintage) to pressure Clinton to drop out. Of course, he has to say--as everyone on the senior staff does--that Clinton should stay in as long as she wants. But he'd be an idiot take all pressure off her to drop out.

To win you must have a multifaceted campaign. I don't take it as a slight to Hillary Clinton. In fact, I think it is a testament to her continued strength and vigor as a candidate.

I also agree with Rachel Maddow: he's going to have to push her out. But this race is and has been too close for the language of total domination or submission, at least to my mind.

by Bargeron on Mon May 26, 2008 at 06:00:28 PM EST
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Agree with you about that language (none / 0)

But I hope your prediction about what it would take for Clinton's exit does not come to pass.

by lombard on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:36:53 PM EST
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Re: seeking war on memorial day? (none / 0)

The only people I see making threats are Clinton supporters but how about offering some analysis relenat to the post.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:40:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hypo for a sunny day. (none / 0)

She would dominate among chthonic ice skaters.

Can't rec or rate -- next username, please!

by neeborMolgula on Mon May 26, 2008 at 01:55:54 PM EST

Good diary providing food for thought (none / 0)

I picked 31%-40% because I was thinking 30% to 35% and thought I should round up. But, I may have been too generous.

As you say, "in a vacuum," I believe she matches up better against McCain, but any perceived advantages would be more than counterbalanced by very bad feelings and I think her chances in the GE may be significantly worse than Obama's under those circumstances. I'm far from sure that I would vote for her in November if the techniques employed to get the nomination were ruthless enough.

by lombard on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:44:14 PM EST

Re: Good diary providing food for thought (2.00 / 1)

That's a good point. Also, there's currently a difference, in exit polling, in Obama supporters who'd support her and Clinton supporters who'd support him. Suffice it to say, if this went to a floor fight, her numbers among Obama supporters would worsen before getting better, as I expect his number among her supporters will do over the next few months.

No way. No how. No McCain.

by freedom78 on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:48:36 PM EST
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Absolutely agree (none / 0)

by lombard on Mon May 26, 2008 at 02:54:08 PM EST
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Okay here ya go... (none / 0)

Hillary gets the nomination.

Hillary immediately offers the VP slot (publicly) to Obama. He either takes it or doesn't.

She then picks another running mate and makes it clear that Obama will have a key role in her administration.

Obama will campaign on her behalf, as will Michelle just as Bill/Hillary would do for Him.

In the meantime the fences she needs to mend are with the two specific groups:

1. African Americans

2. New Young Voters

There are many ways in which she can work to gain back the African American vote (since they were originally with her) - mostly through her surrogates that have stuck with her and by honing in on issues key to this community.

New, Young Voters - again - she needs to continue talking about their issues (which she has been doing all along): Education (and the cost), Global Warming (pick a Czar).

The proof that she will win the GE is right here:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Cl inton/Maps/May26.html

and here:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107488/Gallup -Daily-Clinton-Maintains-Lead-Over-McCai n.aspx

The beauty as to WHY it will be so much easier for Hillary to win in November than Obama is that Hillary has the same demographics as McCain - so she actually TAKES from his group of supporters:

Specifically,

Republican WOMEN
Senior Citizens
White working class voters
Latinos
Jewish voters
Catholics

Basically - with Hillary at the top of the ticket - it is a guaranteed 1-2 punch against McCain. He will lose because she will pull from these supporters.

Obama does not poll well in any of the above groups against McCain. Therefore - he has ALOT more work to do to try and win against McCain in November.

If he cannot gain on all of the above groups before November, then McCain will win.

That is why Hillary needs to fight this to the end and the Super Delegates need to pay attention.

Personally, I would LOVE the following ticket.

Clinton/Obama (all problems solved).

worse case

Obama/Clinton (save the clinton supporters).

I would even suggest a brokered deal as follows:

Clinton/Obama for the first 2 years
Obama/Clinton for the second 2 years

in 2012 - they both run again and see who wins.

by nikkid on Mon May 26, 2008 at 03:27:43 PM EST

Re: Okay here ya go... (none / 0)

Ok you identified a couple of groups one of which she must have to win (African-Americans). What's her argument to that group to get them back and what %, if any, do you think she would get back. Right now she appears to be polling at anywhere between 55-70% in a hypothetical matchup with McCain and that's without a floor fight.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon May 26, 2008 at 04:28:04 PM EST
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