MyDD :: June 15: UPDATE

June 15: UPDATE

by heresjohnny, Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:49:24 PM EST

Hoping for a floor fight?

Terry McAuliffe either went way off message or your hopes are in vain.

June 15.

That's the date that this will be over according to Mr. McAuliffe.

Now he says Sen. Clinton will be the nominee but that seems very unlikely without a floor fight.

What did he say when asked about his previous statement saying they'd take it all the way to Denver?

"What do you expect me to say?" McAuliffe retorted. "I'm chairman of the campaign."

Why then you ask?

The primaries finish on June 3, he noted, and after that there will be pressure on the uncommitted superdelegates (who now number about 300) to commit to one candidate or another. It should not take too long for these undecided insiders to make up their minds and declare their intentions--even if there are some who would rather not choose between the two.

Now I guess all bets might be off if Sen. Clinton is NOT the nominee like McAuliffe believes she'll be.

I have to ask in all seriousness since no analysis has been done on this issue. Should Sen. Clinton end the primary season behind on pledged delegates but be successful in her argument that a certain black preacher was just too much for America and Sen. Obama is unelectable how can she win against John McCain?

In each close state, what % of the vote can she afford to lose and still expect to beat McSame?

If anyone has done the analysis of the situation above (% of loss that's OK) and can post it here that would be great!

Tags: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama (all tags)

Permalink :: 63 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Is not that admitting a Clinton defeat? What scenario has it ending on June 15th that has Clinton winning?

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:52:58 PM EST

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Apparently the one that has a large majority of the SDs coming her way.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:00:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Wow...that is a rather out there claim then. To suggest that the Aristocrats will break 200-40 for her

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:02:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yep (none / 0)

Then again...

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:08:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep (none / 0)

I really hate it that, with Obama supporters, a campaign surrogate makes an outreach towards party unity and people hold it against him.

Everyone wants this to be over by June, including the Superdelegates. They will make there decision then, and I believe FL and MI will have been resolved by that time as well. If HRC has the sufficient delegates to receive the nomination in June, then it is over--no floor fight required.

No candidacy is more important than the right to vote.

by hornplayer on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:04:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep (none / 0)

Who is holding it against him? I was kidding about him being an Obama mole in the Clinton campaign. Too subtle?

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:09:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

THey think a popular vote lead and the series of wins in PA, IN, WV, KY, PR will trigger a superdelegate wave for her. In which case it could very well be over on June 15, with her as the winner, irregardless of the delegates from FL and MI. No floor fight necessary.

Floor fight will only be necessary if superdelegates pick Obama while MI and FL results would put her over the top.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:09:11 PM EST

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Hypothetically, were that to happen, what about an analysis of her chances in the GE...

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:12:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Look on the Homepage of this site. She wins!

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:12:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Yeah you're aware that's not meaningful analysis right? It's just based on polling at any given moment...

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:14:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Well then, at this "given moment", please provide a more "meaningful analysis".

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:16:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Actually that's what I'm asking for...

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:19:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Well yes. That is certainly part of it. Make the electability argument, using the late wins in the Rust Belt/Appalachia as further evidence of her strength in the swing demographics. With a pop vote lead (by whatever definition necessary), that provides a cover for SDs lookign to buck the pledged delegates.

If Hillary wins even ONE of NC, OR, MT, or SD, I'd say she's very likely the nominee.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:16:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

YUP.

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:18:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Right. And if the AA churches don't do a GOTV effort what % of that AA vote, those activists, and the young people can she afford to lose in each state?

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:20:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Both camps are polarized.

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:23:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

That's still not addressing the issue...

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:24:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Once again, the results are on this site's homepage. You don't like the results, provide a more "meaningful analysis".

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:29:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Poll numbers are not analysis...

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:30:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

"Meaningful analysis" are your words; that's why they're in quotes.

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:41:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

It appears that this analysis has not been done. Or at least you haven't seen it. That's pretty much what I figured.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:46:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

let put it this way (none / 0)

just because there are "numbers" on the top of the page, it does not mean they actually are reflective of anything accurate

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:11:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: let put it this way (none / 0)

Well then maybe you should ask the administrators of this site if they put this info up just to add a pretty picture!

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:16:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: let put it this way (none / 0)

How about they put some actual analysis up instead!

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:23:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

why would I ask them that (none / 0)

its their widget, I do not think its accurate but I do not need it to make my points.

If you think you need it to make your points you should ask the admin to back it up with data.

-- be excellent to each other

by kindthoughts on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:25:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I would expect (none / 0)

That Barack Obama will work his tail off making sure his African American and young supporters support the Democrats in the General Election.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:28:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would expect (none / 0)

He doesn't control that group so I imagine that some will still stay home. What % can Sen. Clinton afford to lose?

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:30:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would expect (none / 0)

Well about half as many Reagan Democrats as Obama will lose to McCain.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:31:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would expect (none / 0)

What are your numbers?

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:33:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would expect (none / 0)

As I said, it would be half as many as Obama can afford to lose. I don't know what that number is. Perhaps you can provide me that number.

Obama's disappointed supporters will stay home; Clinton's will vote for McCain. Obama will take a double hit compared to Hillary.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:36:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would expect (none / 0)

Twice as many. My error. She can afford to lose twice as many.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:40:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would expect (none / 0)

Hm. I'm not sure how many that is. Can she afford to lose 50% of the AA vote, the liberal vote, & the youth vote?

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:47:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would expect (none / 0)

She might lose 50% of the AA and youth vote, but liberals will vote for her over McCain. With the immense gains made by the Democratic Party in voter registration she will still win the November election.

by 07rescue on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:52:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would expect (none / 0)

You believe she can beat McCain if she lost 50% of the AA vote and 50% of the youth vote?

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:53:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would expect (none / 0)

I'm a liberal. She has my vote.

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:06:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I would expect (none / 0)

Certainly she wouldn't lose the votes of everyone in that scenario but the question is how many can she afford to lose?

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:08:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Um, I'd agree with NC or OR, but SD or MT deciding it is laughable, if Hillary loses IN is it over?

by Socraticsilence on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:26:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

If Hillary wins any of the states where she's expected to lose, it truly demonstrates that something fundamentally has shifted, even if it's something as simple as her winning South Dakota. Obama's been cleaning up in the plains and mountain west and to lose there now would be a big shock.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:30:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

She can win every one and trail in pledged delegates. Clinton lost 10 in a row and no one said she was unelectable...

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:31:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

As I've said, it's no longer about pledged delegates, it's about demonstrating electability and providing sufficient cover to superdelegates. A win in any of those four states demonstrates a shifted dynamic in the race, undermining Obama's claim to electability, a win in the rust belt/appalachia demonstrates CLinton's strengh with an important swing demographic provides further evidence, and a pop vote lead provides the cover. That's the formula.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:34:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Right and the hammering on Rev. Wright would be seen as the reason. That would naturally depress the AA vote (among others) so what % can she afford to lose in the swing states?

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:37:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Like I've said, give me a number of Reagan Democrats that Obama can afford to lose, multiply that number by two, and that's the number Hillary can afford to lose.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:39:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

What are your specific numbers? Clearly it's going to depend on the state. For example, lose a few % in PA and she loses that to McCain.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:41:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Please cite the rulz that state the Dem nominee is decided by "pledged" delegates?

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:10:06 PM EST

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

The total delegates is the measure but that's not the point...

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:11:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Well, what is your point? Who gets the AA vote? Who gets the "blue collar" vote. Or is/should your point be who gets the Electoral College vote? Who will win the GE?

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:22:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

See if Obama ends this with the most pledged delegates and comes away the nominee there's no reason for any Democrat not to vote for him...

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:25:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

There are plenty reasons not to vote for Obama. Just like there are plenty reason not to vote for Clinton and there are plenty reasons not to vote for McSame. What's the endgame? Do you want a Dem Presidency? If so, vote to get one.

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:33:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

You mean the Dems have a good reason to stay at home or vote McCain if Obama is the nominee?

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:40:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

That depends if the voter wants a Dem or Repub Presidency.

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:43:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

Why would any Dem want a GOP presidency?

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:47:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

You're speaking in circles. Is that "Obama speak"?

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:08:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June 15 (none / 0)

I'm not speaking in circles. Unless you mean I'm circling the heads in the sand. That's certainly true.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:22:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Beginning of a graceful exit? (none / 0)

John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.

by Travis Stark on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:37:25 PM EST

Re: Beginning of a graceful exit? (none / 0)

One can hope

John McCain: Cheney with a temper

by wrb on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:06:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bad logic. Again. (none / 0)

When these polls are taken, they present voters with the hypothetical choice: Clinton or McCain? Or: Obama or McCain?

Whatever effects of attrition there might be, whatever defection there might be over to McCain, all of these effects are already part of these results.

So, when one sees through your word games, the answer to your question is very simple: she can afford to lose exactly the % by which she is currently winning. That the answer to your question is so self-evident is a good indication of how meaningless the question was. No one need do any additional "analysis" for you.

I understand how devoted you are to confusing people. What I don't understand is why you are so obsessed with the race of Barack's pastor.

by bobbank on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:59:50 PM EST

Re: Bad logic. Again. (none / 0)

You believe that when African-Americans or young people are polled in a Clinton/McCain match-up they conclude that Clinton got the nomination despite Obama having more pledged delegates before giving their answer? Really??

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 08:19:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bad logic. Again. (none / 0)

Yes, of course. There are two possibilities: either they care about that metric, in which case they likely understand his lead today, or, they don't care about that metric.

Stop trying to distract people with nonsense.

And please tell us why you are pushing the race card so hard today.

by bobbank on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 08:56:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bad logic. Again. (none / 0)

So you really think that people polled are aware that his delegate lead is insurmountable? Why in the world would you think that? Almost all the media coverage is pretending it's a horse-race.

Race card? Please explain.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 09:01:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bad logic. Again. (none / 0)

Checkmate. Next time think before taking the bait. You just destroyed your own argument.

by bobbank on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 09:09:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bad logic. Again. (none / 0)

Uh. It appears you may not even understand my argument.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 09:13:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]